Timing Thesis
Intelligence
Nigeria Infrastructure Bankability Score Archive
5 retrospective scores validated against known outcomes. 4 of 5 directionally correct. Gate 1: passed.
See the methodology in action
Read a complete Signal Brief
A full sample bankability assessment — AFC/SMDF $1.3B Alumina Refinery, Nigeria, scored 80/100. Signal Brief + Scoring Card, ungated.
Read the sample brief →Bankability Score Archive — Gate 1
All scores are retrospective — applied as at the signal date, before outcomes were known. Gate 1 is Intelliblock's retrospective calibration cohort: bankability scores applied to completed transactions before outcomes were known. Framework version at scoring: V3.2. Current framework: V3.6.
| Project | Sector | Score | Effective Tier | Outcome | Directional |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azura-Edo IPP | Energy | 91/100 | Tier 1 — Bankable | Financial close achieved | Correct |
| Lekki Deep Sea Port | Transport | 80/100 | Tier 1 — Bankable | Financial close achieved | Correct |
| Lagos–Ibadan Standard Gauge Railway | Transport | 63 raw / Tier 3 eff. | Tier 3 — Conditional gate | Completed — sovereign bilateral | Nuanced |
| Dangote Fertiliser Complex | Industrial | 91/100 | Tier 1 — Bankable | Commissioned and operational | Correct |
| Mambilla Hydropower | Energy | 21/100 | Weak Signal — Pre-bankable | Stalled — no financial close | Correct |
Scores are retrospective — applied as at signal date, before outcomes were known. 4 of 5 transactions scored above or below the Tier 2 threshold correctly (n=5, Gate 1 cohort). The Lagos–Ibadan SGR result (sovereign bilateral completion) is classified as nuanced: the project completed via a route that bypasses standard DFI bankability criteria. Cohort expanding to 15 by Q4 2026. Framework version at scoring: V3.2. Current framework: V3.6.
Signal Brief Abstracts
Selected findings from the Intelliblock scoring pipeline. Full briefs available to Policy Convergence Intelligence subscribers.
June 2026Nigeria77/100 — Tier 2
Bakassi Deep Seaport — Presidential Priority Infrastructure Convergence
Presidential Priority designation under the Renewed Hope infrastructure agenda, combined with active ICRC PPP registration and Calabar Free Trade Zone adjacency, creates a multi-domain convergence signal. DFI appetite confirmed via AFREXIMBANK facility commitment at pre-financial close. Primary constraint: Environmental baseline (PS 1/4) requires independent assessment before Tier 1 upgrade. Opportunity window: 18–36 months to advisory mandate.
May 2026Nigeria87/100 — Tier 1
NLNG Train 7 — Retrospective Validation Cohort
Retrospective score applied at policy signal date (2019). Full DFI consortium confirmed (IFC, AfDB, BII, Export credit agencies). Offtake structure (SPA) precedent-setting for Nigerian LNG sector. Score reflects framework assessment prior to financial close — used as Gate 1 calibration anchor for V3.2 onwards. Directional result: correct. Outcome: financial close achieved 2021.
April 2026Nigeria91/100 — Tier 1
Azura-Edo IPP — Retrospective Validation Cohort
Retrospective score applied at policy signal date (2013). Nigeria's first utility-scale IPP under the NBET framework. Full DFI stack confirmed (IFC, Proparco, FMO, DEG, Siemens). Score reflects framework assessment at convergence point — all five domain gates cleared. Directional result: correct. Outcome: financial close achieved 2015, COD 2017. Highest-scoring project in the V3.6 retrospective cohort.
Active pipeline output
Live Signal Brief Archive
Every brief scored ≥60/100 by Intelliblock's automated daily scoring system. Titles and scores are public. Full text is gated.
Briefs are drawn from a governed knowledge corpus of over 1,500 curated intelligence items across 39 monitored topic clusters. Each cluster carries a confidence index updated continuously as new evidence is processed — scores are not snapshots, they are tracked positions.
View live archive →Intelligence Output — Published Articles
Analysis published under the Intelliblock intelligence standard. Full text available via subscription access.
Bankability Standard
The Azura Model: What Nigeria's Most Successful Infrastructure Finance Tells Us About What Comes Next
Read →Policy Signal
Presidential Priority Is Not Bankability: Why Nigeria's Most Visible Projects Often Score Below 60
Read →Bankability Standard
The ESG Gate: Why Environmental Baseline Is the Single Most Disqualifying Criterion in DFI Infrastructure Finance
Read →Nigeria Lens
Five Projects, Five Lessons from Nigeria's Infrastructure Finance Record
Read →Bankability Standard
The Infrapreneur Checklist: 12 Questions Before You Present to a DFI
Read →Nigeria Lens
Nigeria's Blue Economy Infrastructure: Ports, Fisheries, and the Coastal Logistics Opportunity
Read →Timing Thesis
Policy Convergence: Why the Projects That Close Are Not the Projects That Were Announced
Read →Intelligence Architecture
The Intelligence Architecture Behind Intelliblock: How a Governed Knowledge Corpus Turns Policy Noise into Bankable Signals
Read →Full articles available to Policy Convergence Intelligence subscribers and on request. Links above open the contact page.
All intelligence is AI-assisted analysis, reviewed and approved by the Managing Director before delivery.
Access the full intelligence archive
Signal Briefs, scored summaries, and monthly intelligence notes — delivered as secure PDF to subscribers.
Request archive access
Enter your work email and we will send access details within one working day.
No unsolicited messages. Unsubscribe at any time.