Analytical Methodology
The 100-Point Bankability Framework V3.6
The analytical instrument that converts a Nigeria infrastructure policy signal into a scored bankability verdict.
Category structure published here. Sub-criteria weights are proprietary.
What the Framework is
The Bankability Framework is the analytical instrument that converts a Nigeria infrastructure policy signal into a scored bankability verdict. Every Rapid Assessment Plus and every Policy Convergence Intelligence Signal Brief is scored against V3.6. The category structure is published here. The sub-criteria weights are not.
How a Signal Becomes a Brief
Five stages from policy event to bankability verdict. Each stage has a hard rule — no editorial discretion at any point in the pipeline.
Signal Detected
Daily monitoring across 5 domains: legislative, regulatory, DFI deployment, fiscal policy, and political economy.
Convergence Check
How many domains carry active signals (K)? K ≥ 2 triggers full scoring. K = 1 is logged and monitored only.
100-Point Scoring
Five core categories scored (Cat1–Cat5, 75 pts). Three signal amplifiers applied (Amp1–Amp3, 25 pts). Sub-criteria weights are proprietary.
Binary Gate Check
ESG Gate, Commercial Gate, and E&S Conditional Gate evaluated. Any triggered gate reduces the effective tier below the raw score.
Brief Delivered
Bankability verdict and tier classification issued. Recommendation and next action are time-bound to the opportunity window.
Framework Architecture
5 core categories (75 points) plus 3 signal amplifiers (25 points). Category 4 carries a 5-point conditional uplift for qualifying informal market projects.
| Category | Points | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Cat1 — Political & Regulatory Foundation | 15 | Presidential mandate, legislative backing, policy consistency, multi-administration continuity, regulatory stability |
| Cat2 — Fiscal & Financial Architecture | 15 | Sovereign fiscal headroom, DFI co-financing signal, revenue model credibility, equity structure |
| Cat3 — Implementation Readiness | 15 | Land tenure and site control, technical feasibility, execution momentum, procurement framework, sponsor track record |
| Cat4 — Commercial Viability | 20 | Projected IRR vs sector benchmark, offtake and demand certainty, currency and repatriation risk, financial model maturity, development impact. Base: 15 pts. +5 pts conditional uplift for qualifying informal market projects (IML trigger). |
| Cat5 — ESG & Climate Compliance | 10 | IFC Performance Standards alignment (PS1–PS8), climate risk classification, community engagement, local content compliance. Gating category — see Binary Gates below. |
| Core categories total | 75 | |
| Amp1 — Policy Convergence | 12 | Multi-domain signal intersection — number of actively aligned policy domains (K) and Presidential Priority designation |
| Amp2 — Continental Integration | 8 | AfCFTA mandate alignment, confirmed cross-border infrastructure dimension, DFI continental strategy activation |
| Amp3 — Investor Appetite | 5 | Institutional investor pre-mandate signal, active DFI commitment or financial advisory agreement confirmed |
| Amplifiers total | 25 | |
| Total | 100 |
Score Thresholds
Five verdict tiers determine the intelligence output and recommended next action. Effective tier may be lower than raw score if a binary gate is triggered.
| Raw Score | Verdict | Recommended action |
|---|---|---|
| 80–100 | Tier 1 — Bankable | Full RA+ commissioned. Opportunity window open for origination or pre-positioning. |
| 60–79 | Tier 2 — Structured Bankable | RA+ recommended. Specific conditions identified; project is bankable with targeted intervention. |
| 40–59 | Tier 3 — Watch List | Monitor. Not client-ready until conditions met. Revisit on policy or fiscal trigger. |
| 20–39 | Weak Signal | Note in log. Not actionable at present. Revisit on material policy trigger only. |
| Below 20 | Noise | Archive. Insufficient convergence for active intelligence tracking. |
Binary Gates
Four gate conditions are evaluated before any score is finalised. Gates can reduce the effective tier below the raw score.
ESG Gate — Cat5
Minimum ESG Compliance
Cat5 < 3/10 caps the effective score at Tier 3 (maximum 59/100), regardless of all other scores. DFI capital is inaccessible without minimum ESG compliance. No exceptions.
Commercial Gate — Cat4
Revenue Model Viability
Cat4 < 8/20 caps the effective score at Tier 2 (maximum 79/100). Intelliblock does not certify projects without demonstrated commercial viability as Tier 1 Bankable.
E&S Conditional Gate — V3.6
IFC Performance Standard Failure
IFC PS5 (Involuntary Resettlement), PS7 (Indigenous Peoples), or PS8 (Cultural Heritage) failure without a Resettlement Action Plan in preparation caps the effective tier at Tier 2 and activates DFI-grade notation — even when Cat5 ≥ 3/10.
DFI-Grade Notation — Cat5
DFI Preparation Required
Cat5 < 5/10 without a PS gate failure adds DFI-grade notation to the output. Signals that environmental and social preparation work is required before DFI submission. No tier cap.
Framework Version History
The framework has been refined across six versions since V3.1. Every version change is documented here. No retrospective score has changed tier as a result of any version migration.
E&S Conditional Gate activated: IFC PS5 (Involuntary Resettlement), PS7, and PS8 failure without a Resettlement Action Plan in preparation caps the effective tier at Tier 2. SD4 Social Licence formalised as an observation dimension (0 points) in the Informal Market Layer.
Cat5 ESG gate sharpened: PS FAIL caps Cat5 sub-score at 1/3 of the category maximum. Multi-signal cluster trigger added for parallel domain dispatch.
Category 4 restructured: base 15 pts with a conditional 5-pt uplift for qualifying informal market projects (Informal Market Layer). IRR benchmark bands formalised per sector. Development impact sub-criterion introduced.
Calibration database established. Retrospective cohort validated at N=10. Brier score confirmed within calibrated range. Gate 1 cohort defined at this version — all subsequent scoring uses V3.3+ as baseline.
Initial scoring architecture across five dimensions. V3.2 introduced the policy convergence amplifier (Amp1) as a distinct category. All retrospective archive scores have been recalculated at V3.6 equivalent criteria. No score changed tier.
Sector IRR Bands
DFI-acceptable internal rate of return ranges applied in Cat4 commercial viability scoring. Scoring a power project against a water project benchmark is a category error — V3.6 eliminates it.
| Sector | DFI-acceptable IRR range |
|---|---|
| Power generation and transmission | 12–18% |
| Transport (road, rail, ports) | 8–14% |
| Water and sanitation | 6–12% |
| Telecoms and digital infrastructure | 15–22% |
| Industrial zones and SEZs | 10–16% |
| Urban infrastructure (housing, healthcare) | 8–13% |
Worked Example
Bankability score: Bakassi Deep Seaport Complex, Nigeria. Scored under V3.5 as of April 2026. AfreximBank advisory mandate confirmed May 2024 — directionally correct.
| Category | Score | Key finding |
|---|---|---|
| Cat1 — Political & Regulatory Foundation | 12/15 | K=4 domain convergence confirmed. Presidential Priority designation active. ICRC Certificate of Compliance issued. |
| Cat2 — Fiscal & Financial Architecture | 14/15 | AfreximBank $3.5B Financial Advisory Agreement signed. AfDB $100M ARISE IIP equity. DBFOT concession — no sovereign capital exposure. |
| Cat3 — Implementation Readiness | 14/15 | ARISE IIP 80% concession equity confirmed. Lekki Port precedent. Brownfield expansion plus greenfield berth. EPC procurement at advanced stage. |
| Cat4 — Commercial Viability | 12/20 | IML not triggered (deep-water port: formal sector). Base sub-criteria: 12/15. Port IRR benchmark confirmed with blended finance adjustment. Trade corridor demand validated. |
| Cat5 — ESG & Climate Compliance | 4/10 | E&S Conditional Gate ACTIVE — PS5 FAIL (Usung Inwang/Idua Inwang resettlement disputes; no RAP commissioned at scoring date). DFI-grade notation ACTIVE. ESG Gate not triggered (Cat5=4≥3). |
| Amp1 — Policy Convergence | 11/12 | K=4 active domains (Economic Development, Trade, Infrastructure, Industrial). Presidential Priority confirmed. |
| Amp2 — Continental Integration | 6/8 | AfCFTA gateway positioning. Afreximbank continental mandate. Cross River State PPP coordination confirmed. |
| Amp3 — Investor Appetite | 4/5 | AfreximBank FAA confirmed. AfDB $100M ARISE IIP equity. Pre-mandate DFI signal strong. |
| Total | 77/100 | Tier 2 — Structured Bankable |
Have a project to score?
A Rapid Assessment Plus applies the full V3.6 Framework to your project with category-level evidence in 5 to 7 working days.